Sunday, June 24, 2012

Obama vs. Romney state by state poll numbers. JUNE 20, 2012.

Let's compare the current match ups in each state compared to the results of the 2008 election.

For the current polling data, I source the RealClearPolitics aggregate. The first statistic listed will be the 2008 election result, and the second the current poll numbers.

As of June 20, 2012

*Bold denotes swing state or emerging swing state

Alabama- McCain +21-----n/a
Alaska- McCain +21-----n/a
Arizona- McCain +9-----Romney +5
Arkansas- McCain +20-----Romney +24
California- Obama +24-----Obama +17
Colorado- Obama +9-----Obama +3
Connecticut- Obama +23-----Obama +12
Delaware- Obama +24-----n/a
D.C.- Obama +86-----n/a
Florida- Obama +3-----Romney +1
Georgia- McCain +5-----Romney +10
Hawaii- Obama +46-----Obama +27
Idaho- McCain +25-----n/a
Illinois- Obama +25-----Obama +17
Indiana- Obama +1-----Romney +9
Iowa- Obama +10-----Obama +2
Kansas- McCain +15-----n/a
Kentucky- McCain +16-----n/a
Louisiana- McCain +18-----n/a
Maine- Obama +17-----Obama +16
Maryland- Obama +25-----Obama +23
Massachusetts- Obama +25-----Obama +20
Michigan- Obama +16-----Obama +4
Minnesota- Obama +10-----Obama +12
Mississippi- McCain +13-----n/a
Missouri- McCain +1-----Romney +3
Montana- McCain +2-----Romney +9
Nebraska- McCain +14-----Romney +14
Nevada- Obama +13-----Obama +5
New Hampshire- Obama +10-----Obama +6
New Jersey- Obama +16-----Obama +15
New Mexico- Obama +15-----Obama +14
New York- Obama +27-----Obama +25
North Carolina- Obama +1-----Romney +3
North Dakota- McCain +9-----Romney +13
Ohio- Obama +5-----Obama +2
Oklahoma- McCain +31-----Romney +35
Oregon- Obama +16-----Obama +4
Pennsylvania- Obama +10-----Obama +8
Rhode Island- Obama +28-----Obama +17
South Carolina- McCain +9-----n/a
South Dakota- McCain +8-----n/a
Tennessee- McCain +15-----Romney +7
Texas- McCain +12-----Romney +7
Utah- McCain +28-----n/a
Vermont- Obama +37-----Obama +31
Virginia- Obama +6-----Obama +3
Washington- Obama +17-----Obama +11
West Virginia- McCain +13-----n/a
Wisconsin- Obama +14-----Obama +3
Wyoming- McCain +32-----n/a

Bear in mind, the majority of these polls are aggregates of all polls taken over the course of this entire year.

So what can we sum up as of June 2012?

-Obama has mildly gained support in Minnesota, Texas, Tennessee, and Arizona and lost support in the remaining 33 states where polling data is available. 
-Romney has closed gaps in the previously Democratic strongholds of Michigan and Wisconsin.
-All swing states show significant Republican gains. Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, and Florida all look to be close races Romney will contend in, as well as newly formed battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

I would suggest factoring a 2 point swing in favor of Romney in each of these polls to adjust for liberal bias. When you do that, then the race looks extremely winnable.


Gorges Smythe said...

The amazing thing is that Obama has any support at all after the crap he's pulled. Guess it just goes to show the idiocy of far too many Americans!

Silverfiddle said...

If Romney can just keep it between the lines, he can win.

I am impressed with his campaign organization so far. They have been eating Obama's lunch.

LibertyAtStake said...

It's going to be a landslide for Romney. Mark it. Obama has four more months to - as my Dad puts it - "inflame the entire country." And he surely will as this trend builds and his depseration to bitterly cling to power grows.