To the countless Obama supporters out there, god bless their souls...this is why your guy won't win.
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*Just 29% of likely voters feel the country is moving in the right direction. 63% of likely voters feel the nation is on the wrong track. These numbers have held steady for 2 years under the Obama administration.
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*The unemployment rate remains mired at 8.3%. Since FDR, no incumbent has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%. Factor in those who have given up looking for work, and the "real" unemployment rate called U6, is around 15%. Florida's U6 unemployment rate is 17% while Ohio and Pennsylvania are at 14%. Obama has overseen the longest period of above 8% unemployment since the Great Depression.
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*2nd quarter GDP growth has slowed to a stagnant 1.5% in 2012. Based on the Abramowitz GDP forecast equation, which correlates incumbent 2nd quarter GDP growth into likely popular vote percentage based on past elections, Obama hovers at just over 50% of the popular vote, hardly enough to get re-elected.
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*President Obama's current job approval rating is 47% with 52% disapproving according to Rasmussen. Gallup currently lists Obama's approval rating at 45%. The intensity level of likely voters paints an even grimmer picture with just 24% of likely voters strongly approving of Obama and 43% strongly disapproving. Historically, incumbent presidents with an approval rating below 50% don't win a second term. President Obama's approval rating has hovered at or below 50% the entire year.
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*56% of likely voters still remain in favor of repealing Obamacare. Obama's signature piece of legislation is still just as unpopular now as it was when it was signed into law.
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*According to Gallup, the top issues American voters care about are creating jobs, reducing corruption in the federal government, and reducing the federal budget deficit, respectively. President Obama is on the wrong side of each one of these.
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*Romney's support among youth voters has increased substantially to 40%. Young voters were vital to Obama's 2008 win, favoring him 68% to 30% over John McCain. In order for Obama to win again, he will have to galvanize the youth and black vote like he did in 2008, something that appears less likely by the day.
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*Mitt Romney's campaign threatens to overtake the Obama campaign in the money race, something that would have been unheard of in early 2012. Romney outraised Obama by 17 million in May, 35 million in June, and 26 million in July. Money will no longer be an easy advantage for Obama as it was in 2008, when he outspent McCain by a 3:1 margin nationwide.
And that, my friends, is why this election is over.
9 comments:
I had heard about Romney's numbers going up with young people. That's great. Maybe they see some "realistic hope" for a better future with him versus the guy who lied to them 4 years ago.
Even more, we don't need to be bribed with hooch and cigarettes and bused to the polls.
And your forgetting the one Huge Issue, besides the fact he has lost the black vote, hispanic vote, women's vote and now the retired/older vote ...
The Big Medicare Lie ... From Romney's Etch-a-sketch, er, whiteboard today in SC.
http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/08/16/699791/the-real-white-board-the-differences-between-obama-and-romney-on-medicare/
... Over the last week, Romney and Ryan have twisted themselves into a pretzel [on defense] to attack [pivot to] President Obama for “stealing” $716 billion [Chuck said 5 trillion eg the truth there a little?] from Medicare, while trying to explain why Paul Ryan included the savings in his FY 2013 budget. Romney had previously pledged to sign the document into law.
During the presentation, Romney tried to lay out the differences. Obama takes the money out of seniors’ Medicare Advantage plans and cuts payments to providers, causing some to lose his coverage, he argued. The program’s trust fund would go bankrupt by 2024, under Obama, and seniors would lose access to the care they need. His plan, alternatively, would preserve the program for current retirees and keep it solvent indefinitely.
ThinkProgress explains why this is wrong:
Medicare and you can't catapult the propaganda.
The Obamacare savings slow the growth of Medicare over the next decade by, in part: eliminating overpayments to private insurers in Medicare Advantage, reforming provider payments to encourage greater efficiency, tying reimbursements to improvements in economic productivity, and reducing fraud and abuse. The law does not impact patient benefits.
As a result of these savings, “growth in spending will be restrained” and the life of the Medicare trust fund is expanded by eight years, the government estimates. Sixteen million seniors are also benefiting from the savings by receiving preventive benefits without deductibles or co-pays and saving more than $3.9 billion on prescription drugs.
Should Romney restore the $716 billion — and unless he institutes other yet to be specified reforms — we would move back to the old system of overpaying private insurers and providers. He’d be re-inserting inefficiency back into the system, jeopardizing the benefits that seniors are currently enjoying, and shrinking the solvency of the Medicare trust fund from 2024 under current law to 2016.
Want to talk about lies ...
Whose the fools?
White Guy in Alaska
Mediscaring cannot and will not win the election for you. The outcome is already set in stone because of the above factual observations. Looked at in a historical context, there is no conceivable way Obama and Biden can win again. Medicare is not going to be the issue that sways independents. Out of control spending and the unacceptable unemployment rate will be.
You must not have a woman in your life. Woman as a whole for Obama there is a +22% Point gap for Obama. Ryan drives the wedge even deeper with his policies on abortion and invetro fertilization, which 3 in his own family did, which could never have happened b/c he's against it now with personhood legislation he wants to implement. Hispanics +67%You don't want to go black that's 90%, and then you don't want to go the me's of the world.
White Guy in Alaska.
Set in stone, whatever, only if you can keep disenfranchising voters with cutting early voter laws.
Why is Mr. Vaginal Probe Gov of Virgina not on the ticket? He royally screwed the pootch on entry into a woman's vagina as a required element of a law he said he would sign. Anybody penetrating a woman, especially state ordered to shame a woman is considered rape.
Go ask women. The Planned Parenthood Radical Tea Nut Repig that was in Congress was primaried out yesterday to a more moderate Repiggy. You know the one who instigated the defunding of Planned Parenthood. In Congress 16 Years ... GONE ... POOF ... Get ready more to come. ;)
Your still talking Tax Returns and Medicare ... You lose Florida.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/federal_court_rules_floridas_shortening_of_early_v.php
A panel of federal judges ruled late Thursday that a Florida law that limits the number of early voting days cannot be implemented in several counties because it would have an adverse impact on minority turnout.
Several counties in Florida are covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which requires certain areas with a history of racial discrimination to have changes to their election laws and procedures precleared by either a federal court or the Justice Department.
The three judge panel ruled that minorities “will be disproportionately affected by the changes in early voting procedures because they disproportionately use early in-person voting.”
“In sum, Florida is left with nothing to rebut either the testimony of the defendants’ witnesses or the common-sense judgment that a dramatic reduction in the form of voting that is disproportionately used by African-Americans would make it materially more difficult for some minority voters to cast a ballot than under the benchmark law,” the court ruled.
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It's so openly dishonest what your trying to do. It's blatent. Keep Trying !!! We know you will. You can't win fairly so you got to try and change the rules.
White Guy in Alaska.
The fact Obama holds an edge over Romney with women (SINGLE women that is) does nothing to counter the above facts. 8.3% unemployment. 1.5% 2nd quarter GDP growth. 45% approval rating. And also $3.75 gas. Face it, your guy is a big failure, and the fact he has a lead with women, or Hispanics, or blacks doesn't change the fact that his overall approval rating is still less than 50% for ALL Americans.
Hack, gas is a commodity, you can't blame the president or a Republican or a Democrat for the price. In fact production of gas and coal is up under Obama. Demand is actually lower in the US and it's traded on the open international commodity markets, only morons like you still think gas prices are controlled by presidents. Talk to the oil cos Hack, they control the supply. They can cut back refinement and the AG at the time in FL '04 - Charlie Crist, sent a report on how they limited supply and drove prices up. See you can't price fix, that's against the law but the bastards supply fixed - by cutting refining capacity.
There are more permits to drill for oil than there are platforms to get it out the ground by 50:1 and there are not enough tanker ships to deliver all the stored supplies. In AK The USGA has said that the big 6 oils cos that own the largest natural gas reserve here in AK have not put forth 1 "REAL PLAN" to develop the fields in 20 years. In fact the State of Alaska sued the oil cos to start to develop the gas and lost. If they develop the fields supply goes up/price goes down.
Your stupid side wants to keep giving the Oil Companies more subsidies to screw us more.
Whose the fool again. Stop those subsidies and we'll have money for the things that benefit all people. Like education, medicare, healthcare, etc.
White Guy in Alaska
I am not blaming Obama for the high gas prices, but the electorate traditionally does. Don't be stupid WMIA. We both know this. You can be objective in at least one area.
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