Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Can Mitt Romney win Wisconsin?

It isn't out of reach.

The most recent polling released last week shows Obama with a 3 point advantage according to Marquette University, and Romney with a 1 point advantage according to the liberal polling source PPP. The most reliable polling source, Rasmussen, has Romney with a 1 point advantage in the state.

The recent addition of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan to the ticket will certainly help. And the monumental defeat of union backed Democrat Tom Barrett by Governor Scott Walker (for a second time) may be pushing this traditionally blue state further into the red.

In 2008, Barack Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 14 point margin. In 2004, John Kerry won Wisconsin by just a 0.38% margin, or a little over 11,000 votes state wide. In 2000, Al Gore won by just a 0.22% margin, or a little over 5,000 votes.

Before 2008, Wisconsin was thoroughly purple, just as it is today. It could be anyone's race in 2012. Expect the results this year to look more like they did in 2004.

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