To the countless Obama supporters out there, god bless their souls...this is why your guy won't win.
*Just 29% of likely voters feel the country is moving in the right direction. 63% of likely voters feel the nation is on the wrong track. These numbers have held steady for 2 years under the Obama administration.
*The unemployment rate remains mired at 8.3%. Since FDR, no incumbent has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2%. Factor in those who have given up looking for work, and the "real" unemployment rate called U6, is around 15%. Florida's U6 unemployment rate is 17% while Ohio and Pennsylvania are at 14%. Obama has overseen the longest period of above 8% unemployment since the Great Depression.
*2nd quarter GDP growth has slowed to a stagnant 1.5% in 2012. Based on the Abramowitz GDP forecast equation, which correlates incumbent 2nd quarter GDP growth into likely popular vote percentage based on past elections, Obama hovers at just over 50% of the popular vote, hardly enough to get re-elected.
*President Obama's current job approval rating is 47% with 52% disapproving according to Rasmussen. Gallup currently lists Obama's approval rating at 45%. The intensity level of likely voters paints an even grimmer picture with just 24% of likely voters strongly approving of Obama and 43% strongly disapproving. Historically, incumbent presidents with an approval rating below 50% don't win a second term. President Obama's approval rating has hovered at or below 50% the entire year.
*56% of likely voters still remain in favor of repealing Obamacare. Obama's signature piece of legislation is still just as unpopular now as it was when it was signed into law.
*According to Gallup, the top issues American voters care about are creating jobs, reducing corruption in the federal government, and reducing the federal budget deficit, respectively. President Obama is on the wrong side of each one of these.
*Romney's support among youth voters has increased substantially to 40%. Young voters were vital to Obama's 2008 win, favoring him 68% to 30% over John McCain. In order for Obama to win again, he will have to galvanize the youth and black vote like he did in 2008, something that appears less likely by the day.
*Mitt Romney's campaign threatens to overtake the Obama campaign in the money race, something that would have been unheard of in early 2012. Romney outraised Obama by 17 million in May, 35 million in June, and 26 million in July. Money will no longer be an easy advantage for Obama as it was in 2008, when he outspent McCain by a 3:1 margin nationwide.
And that, my friends, is why this election is over.