Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Whittling away the GOP field. It is now a 2 man race.

The New Hampshire primary results are in. Mitt Romney, as predicted, took first far and away (38%) over surprising second place finisher Ron Paul (24%).

In third place was Jon Huntsman with 17%, followed by Santorum and Gingrich who each had 10%.

Effectively, this primary vote has separated the men from the boys. Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrich are all finished. The only two candidates with enough support, money, and ability to run a national campaign against Barack Obama are Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

As we look ahead to South Carolina, a win there by Romney would seal the deal. However, if Ron Paul could garner enough support there to upset Romney this might change things. Already, the Paul campaign is calling for all others but Romney to drop out of the race and unite behind him. Unlikely, but if it were to happen the race could change entirely.

The latest poll, released Saturday has Romney in a commanding lead there, followed by Gingrich, Santorum and Ron Paul in 4th.

In light of this thinning of the herd, it is time for conservatives to start looking ahead down the road. No matter who gets the nomination, whether it be Romney or Paul, needs votes from everyone on the center-right in order to beat Obama. There is nothing Obama and the Democrats want more than a divided, splintered GOP, as is the case now.

Potentially, who would be the best ticket to defeat Obama?

Paul/Romney? (haha)
Paul/Ryan? (no pun intended)

How about Marco Rubio or Rand Paul as a potential VP pick?

Feel free to comment below.


Allen said...

Hack, I've only read your past couple posts, and you seem like a very fair and thoughtful person, I wish there were more forums for intelligent debate. I believe Ron Paul as the presidential candidate will defeat Obama regardless of his running mate. You would have all of his supporters plus the mainstay republican base. The only way this would fail is if the mainstay base retraced and voted for Obama because they felt like he was more in line with their beliefs. At that point I'd rest my case that the Obama and Romney aren't that different. The logic of the pairing doesn't add up, but a combination of Paul and Romney would defeat Obama. As a Ron Paul supporter, I view he and Romney as water and oil, so I don't know how that would work, but politically speaking, Romney would appeal to the die hard republican mainstream, while Paul would appeal to the more independent thinkers, in general (forgive me, I'm not trying to be insulting, I just can't think of another way to honestly put it). I asked this question on a previous post, but never saw a response. I don't understand why beating Obama is so important for any republican who supports a candidate other than Ron Paul? How does Obama's foreign, monetary, and economic policies differ so much from Romney such that your day to day life will be improved? My follow on question is how has your day to day life changed through the presidency's of Clinton, Bush, and Obama? Has there been a difference? If so, can it be pinpointed to policy that isn't shared by the three?

Proof said...

I hate to contradict you, but I don't think Paul is number two here, except maybe in a scatological sense.

The New Hampshire primary is an open one, meaning that Democrats and "Independents" can vote in the Republican primary. The figure I heard was that 44% of the votes in the Republican primary were not cast by Republicans.

Now, if this meant a candidate who could reach across party lines and broaden the base, this might be a good thing.

However, I suspect that many of those "Independents" will not be voting for either Romney nor Paul in the fall. This happened in '08, where Republicans had "help" in choosing their nominee.

I suspect that when Paul faces his first "Republican only" primary, he will not fare nearly so well.