Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Romney takes lead in RCP average for first time in 2012.

Today, Romney overtook Obama in the overall Real Clear Politics polling average for the very first time this entire year. He currently holds a 0.7% lead over Barack Obama after a slew of post debate polls showed him in the lead. Among those, Pew reports Romney ahead 4, Gallup shows Romney ahead 2, and IBD/TIPP shows Romney ahead 2. Rasmussen shows a tie, with Romney pulling ahead in the battleground state poll for the first time since September 19th.

The complete 2012 RCP tracker. 

To provide a reference, the red line shows October 3rd, the day of the first presidential debate.

Those of you who read regularly here know I no longer use this RCP average as viable data. The majority of the polls taken this entire election cycle have used samples that assume 2008 levels of Democrat turnout, despite clear indications Republicans will have the edge in enthusiasm come election day. One must ask, if Romney is now ahead by 0.7% with polls that oversample Democrats by 5-15 points, how far is he really ahead? 

Other post debate polls show Romney closing gaps in Pennsylvania and Michigan. But the most shocking poll of all? According to the most recent poll from Rasmussen, just released today, Obama is ahead by just 6 points....In CONNECTICUT!

Unless a video is released the night before the election of Romney molesting a young child, he is going to win the election.

Also, I feel compelled to apologize. Last week in preparation for the first debate, I said it would not be a game changer. I was wrong. This debate was surely a game changer, as you can see above. Romney unexpectedly turned in one of the strongest debate performances ever recorded, but perhaps more historic was Obama's performance, which many are ranking as the worst incumbent debate performance in presidential debate history. Obama self destructed last week. As one pundit said, "In 90 minutes, Romney wiped out 200 million dollars in negative battleground state ads from the Obama campaign."


Adrienne said...

I was so shocked by Romney's performance, I can well imagine how the libtards felt. Honestly, I was expecting him to come and say what a "nice guy" Obama was, yada, yada - in which case I would have had to poke my eardrums out with and icepick.

I knew the within the first 3 minutes or so that the debate was a game changer.

The Conservative Lady said...

I heard today that President Obama thought he did just fine right after the debate was over. I guess he couldn't imagine he could ever do a bad job of anything...so conceited and arrogant. He's living in a fantasy land.

Hack said...

Yes, Obama actually thought he had won the debate after it was over. That should give much insight into Obama's brain. He truly does live in a fantasy land where. He thinks everyone loves him regardless of anything and everything and that he doesn't have to work for anything. The guy has been handed everything on a silver platter since his rich white grandmother paid for his college.