Like predicted, Mitt Romney won in my state, liberal la-la land, Illinois. Adding another 43 delegates to his tally and inching closer towards the nomination. As of right now, Romney holds 562 total delegates, and needs 582 more to reach the 1,144 mark to get the official nod. Santorum holds 249 total delegates, and needs an additional 895.
Let's take a look at the rest of the states that have yet to vote, and make educated guesses as to who will win.
(A comprehensive list can be found here, along with delegate totals.)
States likely to go to Romney- District of Columbia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, Oregon, California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah.
Total possible delegates: 570
States likely to go to Santorum- Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, Montana, South Dakota
Total possible delegates: 575
Bear in mind, these are very conservative estimates in favor of Santorum.
Verdict? Unless Romney suffers an unprecedented collapse, or suddenly dies, he is going to get the nomination. Santorum is going to have to display some magic if he is going to win. That means he's going to have to sweep Texas, North Carolina, and the rest of the conservative states above, and also tack on at least 4 liberal ones. I think now, only an act of God can save the Santorum campaign.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Romney is going to be the nominee. So we all better get used to it. The only question now is, who should be his running mate? Ron Paul? Marco Rubio? Paul Ryan?
Let's take a look at the rest of the states that have yet to vote, and make educated guesses as to who will win.
(A comprehensive list can be found here, along with delegate totals.)
States likely to go to Romney- District of Columbia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Rhode Island, Oregon, California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah.
Total possible delegates: 570
States likely to go to Santorum- Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas, Montana, South Dakota
Total possible delegates: 575
Bear in mind, these are very conservative estimates in favor of Santorum.
Verdict? Unless Romney suffers an unprecedented collapse, or suddenly dies, he is going to get the nomination. Santorum is going to have to display some magic if he is going to win. That means he's going to have to sweep Texas, North Carolina, and the rest of the conservative states above, and also tack on at least 4 liberal ones. I think now, only an act of God can save the Santorum campaign.
One hot theory I've heard is that Romney's VP will be Rand Paul... this is in payback for Ron Paul not attacking Romney in the debates or on the campaign trail.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'd pick Rubio. Paul Ryan is too needed in the position he's currently in.