Saturday, September 22, 2012

2012 Election Prediction: Mitt Romney Wins. And here's why.

The 2012 election map will look something like this. And a 2-4 point general election victory for Romney and Ryan. 


"But Hack! Look at the polls! Obama is really pulling away...."
Not so fast. Using the Real Clear Politics aggregate, or whatever polling source you use, to estimate where the race is, is like using a flat spatula to serve up a bowl of chili. Methodology is everything and the current methodology behind most of the polls reported in the media today show bizarre levels of Democrat turnout that simply will not happen. Reason recently released a poll that was +12% Democrat (Obama +7). CNN also released a poll that was +12% Democrat (Obama +6). A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed oversampling of Democrats at 8% (Obama +1). The recent CBS News/NY Times poll oversampled Democrats by a staggering 13% (Obama +3). And, if that isn't shocking enough, Reuters/Ipsos just released a poll that both oversampled Democrats by a mind boggling 19% while at the same time undersampling independents by 20% (Obama +5). This is the new Obama campaign/mainstream media strategy. Convince the electorate that Romney is losing by fabricating bogus polls, thereby discouraging the undecideds into not voting. Speaking of, in each of these polls, not only are Democrats oversampled to 2008 levels of turnout, independents are vastly undersampled. They do this because independents are heading into Romney's corner. Rasmussen and Gallup are the most accurate polls to trust, and they both have the race in a statistical dead heat. Just watch out you two...don't publish a poll with Romney in the lead or you'll have David Axelrod breathing down your neck...

The Undecided Vote
History shows us that undecideds always shift towards the challenger as the race goes down the wire. Dick Morris explains.

"But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger. An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game."

The Black Vote
The media and Democrats are expecting this election to mimic the historic black voter turnout of 2008. It won't ever happen. As explained above, current polls are conducted by this assumption. Black conservative Perry Drake puts it into perspective.

"Polls are largely not picking up on blacks' massive loss of passion for Obama.  All of their turnout models assume that in November, blacks will vote for Obama in the same numbers as they did in 2008 -- 13 percent of the national vote versus 11 percent in 2004, which is more traditional.  No longer motivated by passion, you can expect 2 million fewer blacks to pull the lever for Obama this time around, spelling doom for his re-election prospects."

Cha-Ching!
Liberal Professor Robert Reich of UC Berkeley says it better than I ever could.

"During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-brothers political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives — to phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters, and vans to bring them to the polling stations. It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference – which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to polling stations can be critical." 

Romney has the money advantage and he will be bringing in every starting pitcher as the final innings approach. Obama has blown through money like a drunken sailor. The Huffington Post reports...
"This advertising disparity is nothing new. Since Romney became the presumptive nominee in May, the Obama camp has dumped tens of millions every month into advertising to define the Republican candidate before he could define himself. In total, including August's numbers, the Obama campaign has outspent Romney on advertising by nearly 600 percent -- $171.4 million to just $30.3 million." 

Mitt Romney, the proven businessman, is hoarding cash for the final stretch. 

Obama's Dismal Record
Obama's shadow won't go away no matter how high his levels of narcissism register on the Kardashian scale. Showing up on David Letterman and The View doesn't change....
-43 straight months of unemployment above 8%
-5 trillion dollars in new debt
-$3.75+ gasoline
-Highest levels of poverty since the 1960s
-4.1% drop in median income
-A record 46.7 million Americans on food stamps
-An approval rating of 46%

These are Carter like numbers that make reelection impossible. Inflated, fabricated polls are the only barrier the Obama campaign and over confident Obama supporters have to combat these hard facts.

The Debates
Again, I'll let liberal UC Berkeley professor Robert Reich give his two cents.

"Also between now and Election Day are three presidential debates, starting October 3. It’s commonly thought Obama will win them handily but that expectation may be very wrong – and could work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton — but when the dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary debates. Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them."

The debates will be a culminating moment in this election. Don't be so quick to check Obama the winner in these debates. Without the guidance of dear teleprompter and the mushy audience of The View, the President will be in uncharted territory while having to defend the abysmal record outlined above. He will wheel and deal his old worn out attacks on Mitt Romney about tax returns, 47%, and the usual Obama fairy dust. America will have the first chance to see Romney and Obama together, with each man's record in the spotlight. The contrast alone will be enough. Oh and the Paul Ryan/Joe Biden debate? The only question is, will Joe Biden even be able to walk afterwards? 

The Romney Character Assassination Strategy Hasn't Worked
Throughout the entire campaign, the Obama team has worked tirelessly to shift the national focus away from the dismal economy and Obama's record. During the summer months, Obama spent nearly 100 million dollars in Bain centered attack ads on Mitt Romney in battleground states. Yet, the polls didn't budge. Now, Democrats have "prematurely ejaculated an October surprise" as Doug Ross put it, with the recently released '47%' video they claim is Romney's doom. Yet, today, both Rasmussen and Gallup have the race completely tied. The negative attacks on Mitt Romney haven't worked, but that is all they will continue to do. It is all they can do. 

The Ken Bickers and Michael Berry Model
The two University of Colorado professors designed this election prediction model which tallies economic data and formulates it into a mathematical model to predict the electoral college. It has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980, including the 2000 Bush win (yes, it also predicted Gore would win the popular vote). This time around? Romney landslide.

The Bigger Picture and 2008
Perhaps the most glaring reason of all why Mitt Romney is going to win. Barack Obama and Joe Biden won by just 6 points over McCain and Palin. Yes, McCain and Palin. After 8 years of Bush, peaking violence in Iraq, a recent economic collapse, a 3:1 nationwide spending advantage, a comprehensive media advantage, and a vastly weaker opponent, Obama won by 6 points. This time around there is no money advantage, less enthusiasm, a stronger opponent, and a dismal record to defend. Think about that long and hard.

And get used to "President Romney".

17 comments:

Silverfiddle said...

I hope you're right. I have a similar blog post planned for the upcoming week (though not as detailed as your excellent analysis), but I don't think a Romney victory is in the bag.

Chuck said...

Romney is an automaton? Reich is about as bright as he is tall. Brakabama can't order his goddam lunch without the words being written down for him. Hillary Clinton stomped his little Communist ass in every debate they had and Hillary Clinton is way behind Mitt Romney in terms of skill.

Landslide ahead.

Fredd said...

I'm with you, Hack. I've seen this all before.

PS> don't pay too much mind to Silverfiddle's 'tight race' concerns, as he actually talks to liberals regularly and believes a certain percentage of what they tell him, to his detriment.

Romney in a landslide.

Hack said...

Well, I certainly would like to believe landslide. If the 5% of the undecideds go with Romney, we might just see it. Also, look for the Bradley Effect.

Hack said...

Well, I certainly would like to believe landslide. If the 5% of the undecideds go with Romney, we might just see it. Also, look for the Bradley Effect.

The Conservative Lady said...

I don't care if Romney wins by 1 vote, as long as he wins. Your post made me smile. Let's keep praying.

Mark Adams said...

This site takes all you've posted here, Hack, and puts in to real numbers showing a huge swing away from Obama.

Anonymous said...

You better get a second opinion there Hack.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

BASED on REALITY.

White Guy in Alaska

You're still counting VA, where Obama is up +4.5% and OH where Obama is up +4.1 and Florida where Obama is up +1.9%.

Your losing Swing States Period.

Anonymous said...

Geez you still taking Wisconsin ... that state is +7.8 for Obama.

Your math only works if they can impose new Restrictive Voter ID laws which are being overturned all over the county.

White Guy in Alaska.

Hack said...

Mark, I actually used that site for some of my research. White Guy, what evidence do you use that Romney is losing swing states? The evidence you use is polls produced by the media with completely skewed samples. That said, if you look at my map, Ohio is blue. That means I think Obama will win Ohio. I think Romney will carry Virginia. In 2004, Bush took Virginia by an 8.2% margin of victory. The fact is, most of these polls are creating the false perception that Obama is pulling away. When you use a sample of 48% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 20% independents, you will come up with that result. Unfortunately for Dems, the electorate is far from that picture.

Anonymous said...

Real Clear Politics for one Hack, They use the aggregate of all polls. Left and Right leaning. Most polls still don't consider cell phone owners, so they get missed and most young people are using only cell phones.

Youth votes Democratic. You still have 0% of the Black Vote, 30% of the hispanic votes and losing the women's vote every day that goes by more and more.

You really are the party of the "Old White Guys."

That's sticking to ya.

White Guy in Alaska ... Turning Alaska Blue Baby!

Hack said...

I'd rather be a party of old white males than homosexuals, leeches, collectivists, and partial birth abortion advocates.

Once again, you prove that your side is the one that continues to divide the nation along racial, gender, and class lines. The only people I ever talk with who constantly bring up race are liberals like yourself.

And good luck turning Alaska blue.

Hack said...

Also, if Obama was truly up 7.8 points in Wisconsin, he wouldn't be campaigning there this week. Wisconsin will be close. Even Obama and his team know it. If Wisconsin was in the bag for Obama, the campaign wouldn't waste any time campaigning there.

Anonymous said...

Homosexuals and abortions Geez, you stay a top that wedge issue and hold on for dear life.

You concern yourself with 3% of the population. That's how many gays, lesbians make up. Woopie.

Abortions, there again less than 3% of Planned Parenthood's services is abortion. By law they can't be paid for by a law enacted in 1976, maybe you've heard of the Hyde Amendment? But by all accounts you think it's 50% or better. Another worry you have for very little of the population participating in it.

Yet you'll vote for the top 1% that's making over $3 Million a year for them to get even more lower tax breaks and give up on the majority of Americans' that make an average of $40K per household per year. To keep that 3% of abortions ever happening or that 3% of GBLT from getting a fair shake in life.

Oh and Alaskan's like Moderates, that's why Lisa Murkowski kicked Joe Miller's crazy extremist ass to the curb, keep puting up Bat Shit Crazy i.e. Bachmann's, Steve King's and moderates win up here all day long. When Murkowski said she was against women's Birth Control the backlash was deafening up here in AK.

White Guy in Alaska.

JLambert said...

White Guy in Alaska: Planned Parenthood kills over 300,000 unborn babies per year. Their biggest profit maker? Abortion. 3% means nothing to me.

Anonymous said...

It's up to the woman. I sure as heck wouldn't push it underground where hangers will be the implement of choice. And if it was by rape where do I stand in line to pay for one. Cuz I'm pulling out the large instead of passing that genetic FREAKS genes into this world! Or some daddy screws their baby girl cuz he's loco in cabasa. I'm buying! I'll treat.

You want gov't out of your personal business? Well get that type of gov't out of everyone's personal lives. Roe v. Wade is the law of the land.

AND It's none ya damn business.

White Guy in Alaska

Anonymous said...

JLambert ... ya must be a Todd Akin fan.

Woman have a way of shutting off their processes to stop from having a baby when focably raped.

Ever hear of BIOLOGY? Oh that's science and Republican's don't believe in that. ... Although they'll get in their car which science and engineering figured out, ride on the roads that Gov't provides and keeps up, and they'll take their medicine that science created to save their lives, and they'll eat the meat/food that science makes sure is safe and go to work saying I built and did it all by myself ... I deserve to pay ZERO Taxes. I don't need a fireman or a policeman either. Teachers, we don't need those either.

Whatever ... Extremist reupukeism is a sickness.

White Guy in Alaska