The 2012 election map will look something like this. And a 2-4 point general election victory for Romney and Ryan.
"But Hack! Look at the polls! Obama is really pulling away...."
Not so fast. Using the Real Clear Politics aggregate, or whatever polling source you use, to estimate where the race is, is like using a flat spatula to serve up a bowl of chili. Methodology is everything and the current methodology behind most of the polls reported in the media today show bizarre levels of Democrat turnout that simply will not happen. Reason recently released a poll that was +12% Democrat (Obama +7). CNN also released a poll that was +12% Democrat (Obama +6). A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll showed oversampling of Democrats at 8% (Obama +1). The recent CBS News/NY Times poll oversampled Democrats by a staggering 13% (Obama +3). And, if that isn't shocking enough, Reuters/Ipsos just released a poll that both oversampled Democrats by a mind boggling 19% while at the same time undersampling independents by 20% (Obama +5). This is the new Obama campaign/mainstream media strategy. Convince the electorate that Romney is losing by fabricating bogus polls, thereby discouraging the undecideds into not voting. Speaking of, in each of these polls, not only are Democrats oversampled to 2008 levels of turnout, independents are vastly undersampled. They do this because independents are heading into Romney's corner. Rasmussen and Gallup are the most accurate polls to trust, and they both have the race in a statistical dead heat. Just watch out you two...don't publish a poll with Romney in the lead or you'll have David Axelrod breathing down your neck...
The Undecided Vote
History shows us that undecideds always shift towards the challenger as the race goes down the wire. Dick Morris explains.
"But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger. An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game."
The Black Vote
The media and Democrats are expecting this election to mimic the historic black voter turnout of 2008. It won't ever happen. As explained above, current polls are conducted by this assumption. Black conservative Perry Drake puts it into perspective.
"Polls are largely not picking up on blacks' massive loss of passion for Obama. All of their turnout assume that in November, blacks will vote for Obama in the same numbers as they did in 2008 -- 13 percent of the national vote versus 11 percent in 2004, which is more traditional. No longer motivated by passion, you can expect 2 million fewer blacks to pull the lever for Obama this time around, spelling doom for his re-election prospects."
Liberal Professor Robert Reich of UC Berkeley says it better than I ever could.
"During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-brothers political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives — to phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters, and vans to bring them to the polling stations. It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference – which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to polling stations can be critical."
Romney has the money advantage and he will be bringing in every starting pitcher as the final innings approach. Obama has blown through money like a drunken sailor. The Huffington Post reports...
"This advertising disparity is nothing new. Since Romney became the presumptive nominee in May, the Obama camp has dumped tens of millions every month into advertising to define the Republican candidate before he could define himself. In total, including August's numbers, the Obama campaign has outspent Romney on advertising by nearly 600 percent -- $171.4 million to just $30.3 million."
Mitt Romney, the proven businessman, is hoarding cash for the final stretch.
Obama's Dismal Record
Obama's shadow won't go away no matter how high his levels of narcissism register on the Kardashian scale. Showing up on David Letterman and The View doesn't change....
-43 straight months of unemployment above 8%
-5 trillion dollars in new debt
-Highest levels of poverty since the 1960s
-4.1% drop in median income
-A record 46.7 million Americans on food stamps
-An approval rating of 46%
These are Carter like numbers that make reelection impossible. Inflated, fabricated polls are the only barrier the Obama campaign and over confident Obama supporters have to combat these hard facts.
Again, I'll let liberal UC Berkeley professor Robert Reich give his two cents.
Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them."
The debates will be a culminating moment in this election. Don't be so quick to check Obama the winner in these debates. Without the guidance of dear teleprompter and the mushy audience of The View, the President will be in uncharted territory while having to defend the abysmal record outlined above. He will wheel and deal his old worn out attacks on Mitt Romney about tax returns, 47%, and the usual Obama fairy dust. America will have the first chance to see Romney and Obama together, with each man's record in the spotlight. The contrast alone will be enough. Oh and the Paul Ryan/Joe Biden debate? The only question is, will Joe Biden even be able to walk afterwards?
The Romney Character Assassination Strategy Hasn't Worked
Throughout the entire campaign, the Obama team has worked tirelessly to shift the national focus away from the dismal economy and Obama's record. During the summer months, Obama spent nearly 100 million dollars in Bain centered attack ads on Mitt Romney in battleground states. Yet, the polls didn't budge. Now, Democrats have "prematurely ejaculated an October surprise" as Doug Ross put it, with the recently released '47%' video they claim is Romney's doom. Yet, today, both Rasmussen and Gallup have the race completely tied. The negative attacks on Mitt Romney haven't worked, but that is all they will continue to do. It is all they can do.
The Ken Bickers and Michael Berry ModelThe two University of Colorado professors designed this election prediction model which tallies economic data and formulates it into a mathematical model to predict the electoral college. It has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980, including the 2000 Bush win (yes, it also predicted Gore would win the popular vote). This time around? Romney landslide.
The Bigger Picture and 2008
Perhaps the most glaring reason of all why Mitt Romney is going to win. Barack Obama and Joe Biden won by just 6 points over McCain and Palin. Yes, McCain and Palin. After 8 years of Bush, peaking violence in Iraq, a recent economic collapse, a 3:1 nationwide spending advantage, a comprehensive media advantage, and a vastly weaker opponent, Obama won by 6 points. This time around there is no money advantage, less enthusiasm, a stronger opponent, and a dismal record to defend. Think about that long and hard.
And get used to "President Romney".